Dear Johns Creek Voters,
You may have received an email from the City of Johns Creek asking for your thoughts on when the city should hold a special election to fill the council seats recently vacated by Brad Raffensperger and Kelly Stewart. The possible election dates are March 17, June 16, Sep 15, or November 3, 2015. Whoever is elected to complete Brad Raffensperger’s term will have to run again on November 3, 2015. Whoever is elected to complete Kelly Stewart’s term will have to run again in November, 2017.
The following table shows the attendance record of council members from January 1, 2010 to the present. The city holds about 22 to 23 city council meetings per year and based on a salary of $15,000 per year per council member, that equates to a cost of $650-$680 per council member per meeting, present or not. The Mayor makes $25,000 per year. The table shows the number of meetings each council member attended, was absent, and attendance percentage.
| Councilmember | Attended | Absent | Attendance |
| Lenny Zaprowski | 21 | 0 | 100.0% |
| Brad Raffensperger | 66 | 1 | 98.5% |
| Bev Miller | 78 | 2 | 97.5% |
| Mike Bodker | 106 | 4 | 96.4% |
| Cori Davenport | 20 | 1 | 95.2% |
| Randall Johnson | 84 | 5 | 94.4% |
| Karen Richardson | 84 | 5 | 94.4% |
| Ivan Figueroa | 85 | 6 | 93.4% |
| Steve Broadbent | 8 | 1 | 88.9% |
| Kelly Stewart | 79 | 11 | 87.8% |
| Dan Mcabe | 34 | 9 | 79.1% |
| Bob Gray | 7 | 2 | 77.8% |
Based on the above history, we can estimate with confidence that the most likely attendance rate of council members is some value between 85% and 99%, with 92% being the midpoint of the range. If the council remains as is with only five members and a quorum requirement of four members, then the following table shows the likelihood of having five of five members at any one meeting, the likelihood of having a quorum at any one meeting, and the likelihood of having a quorum at all 15 meetings scheduled between March and November.
| Range of Attendance Estimates | |||
| 85% | 92% | 99% | |
| For any one meeting | |||
| Likelihood five of five members | 44% | 66% | 96% |
| At least four of five (quorum) | 83% | 94% | 100% |
| Likelihood of quorum at 15 mtgs | 6% | 43% | 99% |
We see from the above table that the likelihood of having a quorum at 15 consecutive meetings scheduled between March and November is only 43% if the attendance rate of council members is at the midpoint of 92%. This compares to a likelihood of 98% for a council fully staffed at 7 members as shown in the table below.
| Full council | Range of Attendance Estimates | ||
| 85% | 92% | 99% | |
| For any one meeting | |||
| Likelihood of seven of seven members | 31% | 56% | 94% |
| At least four of seven (quorum) | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Likelihood of quorum at 15 mtgs | 82% | 98% | 100% |
Alternatively, if you believe the city is adequately represented with five council members, the city could revise its charter to reduce the number of council members. The following table shows that there is no substantial attendance benefit to a seven member council over a five member council. A seven member council is likely to operate at less than a full complement more often than a five member council. A five member council would save the city $30,000 per year in overhead costs.
| Range of Attendance Estimates | |||
| 85% | 92% | 99% | |
| Likelihood of seven of seven present | 31% | 56% | 94% |
| Likelihood of five of five present | 44% | 66% | 96% |
| Likelihood of at least 4 of 7 (quorum) | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Likelihood of at least 3 of 5 (quorum) | 97% | 100% | 100% |
I hope you find the above informative and helpful in formulating your thoughts for the city.
Sincerely,
